rita satellite image
Date/Time: 2005:09:26 11:01:26
GOES-12 1 km visible imagery.
Visualization Date: January 9-, 2005 24: 1:2:
noaa image
maximum 1-minute wind speed of the tropical cyclone
Wind speed probability table
Date: 09/23/2005
The table shows the probability that the maximum 1-minute wind speed of the tropical cyclone will be within any of eight intensity ranges during the next 72 hours. It is based on the outcomes of similar NHC wind speed forecasts during the period 1988-1997. The data base excludes unnamed tropical depressions. NA indicates data not available. TF indicates too few (<10) similar forecasts during 1988-1997 to yield reliable results. Wind speed probability table
Coastal Watches/Warnings and 3-Day Cone
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Date: 09/23/2005
NHC forecast tracks of the center can be in error; the average track forecast errors in recent years was used to construct the areas of uncertainty for the 3 days (solid white area). There is also uncertainty in the NHC intensity forecasts. The intensity forecast chart and table provide intensity forecast and intensity forecast uncertainty information.
This display shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC's forecast intensity for that time.
It is also important to realize tropical cyclones are not a point. Their effects can span many hundreds of miles from the center. The area experiencing hurricane force (one-minute average wind speeds of at least 74 mph) and tropical storm force (one-minute average wind speeds of 39-73 mph) winds can extend well beyond the white areas shown enclosing the most likely track area of the center. The distribution of hurricane and tropical storm force winds in this tropical cyclone can be seen in the
Coastal Watches/Warnings and 3-Day Cone
Tropical Storm Force Experimental Probabilities - 120 Hours
Date: 09/23/2005
These displays show experimental probabilities of surface wind speeds equal to or exceeding 34 kt...39 mph (tropical storm force), 50 kt...58 mph, or 64 kt...74 mph (hurricane force). These wind speed probabilities are based on the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) track, intensity, and wind structure forecast, and on NHC error statistics for those forecast variables during recent years. Each graphic provides probabilities that wind speeds of at least 39, 58, or 74 mph will occur during cumulative time periods at each specific point on the map. The cumulative periods extend into the 5-day forecast period at 12-hour intervals (i.e., 0-12 h, 0-24 h, 0-36 h, ... , 0-120 h). An individual graphic is produced for each interval, and the capability to animate through the periods is provided.
These experimental probabilities are intended to be provided by the NHC with each advisory package for all tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins. However, due to the experimental status of these products, they may not always be timely or even available. While separate graphics are centered on each individual tropical cyclone, probabilities resulting from more than one active tropical cyclone may be seen on each graphic. The existing strike probability product (in Atlantic only) is a statement about the "close" approach of the center. However, this new experimental probability product is about the weather. That is, these wind speed probabilities provide the chances of wind speeds equal to or exceeding familiar thresholds (e.g., tropical storm force, hurricane force) at individual locations. Therefore, the probabilities have more direct meaning and impact to users. These probabilities have the potential to provide users with information that enhances their ability to make preparedness decisions specific to their own situations. These new wind speed probability products could become operational in 2006 and replace the (Atlantic) strike probability text and graphics programs which would then be discontinued. It is important for users to realize that probabilities that may seem relatively small may still be quite significant, since they indicate there is a chance that a damaging or even an extreme event may occur that warrants preparation to protect lives and property.
Cumulative wind distribution
Date: 09/23/2005
This display shows how the size of the storm has changed, and the areas potentially affected so far by sustained winds of tropical storm force (in orange) and hurricane force (in red). The display is based on the wind radii contained in the set of Forecast/Advisories indicated at the top of the figure. Users are reminded that the Forecast/Advisory wind radii represent the maximum possible extent of a given wind speed within particular quadrants around the tropical cyclone. As a result, not all locations falling within the orange or red swaths will have experienced sustained tropical storm or hurricane force winds, respectively. Cumulative wind distribution
Strike Probabilities
Date: 09/23/2005
This display shows the probability, in percent, that the center of the tropical cyclone will pass within 75 statute miles of a location during the 72 hours beginning at the time indicated in the caption. The caption also provides the name of the tropical cyclone and the advisory number from which the probabilities were generated. Contour levels shown are 10%, 20%, 50% and 100%. Strike Probabilities
Hurricane Force Wind Experimental Probabilities
Date: 09/22/2005
Hurricane Force Wind Experimental Probabilities - 120 Hours
Forecasts for the next 0 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 hours Loop
The National Hurricane Center is requesting feedback on this experimental product
Tropical Storm Force Experimental Probabilities - 120 Hours
Date: 09/22/2005
These displays show experimental probabilities of surface wind speeds equal to or exceeding 34 kt...39 mph (tropical storm force), 50 kt...58 mph, or 64 kt...74 mph (hurricane force). These wind speed probabilities are based on the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) track, intensity, and wind structure forecast, and on NHC error statistics for those forecast variables during recent years. Each graphic provides probabilities that wind speeds of at least 39, 58, or 74 mph will occur during cumulative time periods at each specific point on the map. The cumulative periods extend into the 5-day forecast period at 12-hour intervals (i.e., 0-12 h, 0-24 h, 0-36 h, ... , 0-120 h). An individual graphic is produced for each interval, and the capability to animate through the periods is provided.
These experimental probabilities are intended to be provided by the NHC with each advisory package for all tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins. However, due to the experimental status of these products, they may not always be timely or even available. While separate graphics are centered on each individual tropical cyclone, probabilities resulting from more than one active tropical cyclone may be seen on each graphic. The existing strike probability product (in Atlantic only) is a statement about the "close" approach of the center. However, this new experimental probability product is about the weather. That is, these wind speed probabilities provide the chances of wind speeds equal to or exceeding familiar thresholds (e.g., tropical storm force, hurricane force) at individual locations. Therefore, the probabilities have more direct meaning and impact to users. These probabilities have the potential to provide users with information that enhances their ability to make preparedness decisions specific to their own situations. These new wind speed probability products could become operational in 2006 and replace the (Atlantic) strike probability text and graphics programs which would then be discontinued. It is important for users to realize that probabilities that may seem relatively small may still be quite significant, since they indicate there is a chance that a damaging or even an extreme event may occur that warrants preparation to protect lives and property.
Coastal Watches and Warnings and 3-Day Cone
Date: 09/22/2005
Coastal Watches/Warnings and 3-Day Cone
Coastal Watches and Warnings and 5-Day Cone
Date: 09/22/2005
This display shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC's forecast intensity for that time.
NHC forecast tracks of the center can be in error; the average track forecast errors in recent years was used to construct the areas of uncertainty for the first 3 days (solid white area) and for days 4 and 5 (white stippled area). The historical data indicate the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical cyclone will remain within the outer uncertainty area about 60-70% of the time. There is also uncertainty in the NHC intensity forecasts. The intensity forecast chart and table below provide intensity forecast and intensity forecast uncertainty information.
It is also important to realize tropical cyclones are not a point. Their effects can span many hundreds of miles from the center. The area experiencing hurricane force (one-minute average wind speeds of at least 74 mph) and tropical storm force (one-minute average wind speeds of 39-73 mph) winds can extend well beyond the white areas shown enclosing the most likely track area of the center. The distribution of hurricane and tropical storm force winds in this tropical cyclone can be seen in the Cumulative Wind Distribution graphic displayed below.
Strike Probabilities
Date: 09/22/2005
This display shows the probability, in percent, that the center of the tropical cyclone will pass within 75 statute miles of a location during the 72 hours beginning at the time indicated in the caption. The caption also provides the name of the tropical cyclone and the advisory number from which the probabilities were generated. Contour levels shown are 10%, 20%, 50% and 100%.
Mariners 1-2-3 Rule
Date: 09/22/2005
The Mariners' 1-2-3 Rule, or "Danger area", is indicated by shading. The 1-2-3 Rule, commonly taught to mariners, refers to the rounded long-term NHC/TPC forecast errors of 100-200-300 nautical miles at 24-48-72 hours, respectively. The contour defining the shaded area is constructed by accounting for those errors and then broadened further to reflect the maximum 34-kt wind radii forecast at each of those times by the NHC/TPC. The NHC/TPC does not warrant that avoiding these danger areas will eliminate the risk of harm from tropical cyclones. Users operating in the vicinity of these systems are advised to continually monitor the latest Forecast/Advisories from the TPC/NHC and proceed at their own risk. This product also includes areas of possible tropical cyclone formation within the next 36 hours.
Wind speed probability table
Date: 09/22/2005
The table shows the probability that the maximum 1-minute wind speed of the tropical cyclone will be within any of eight intensity ranges during the next 72 hours. It is based on the outcomes of similar NHC wind speed forecasts during the period 1988-1997. The data base excludes unnamed tropical depressions. NA indicates data not available. TF indicates too few (<10) similar forecasts during 1988-1997 to yield reliable results.
Wind speed forecast and probability chart
Date: 09/22/2005
It shows the National Hurricane Center (NHC) maximum 1-minute wind speed forecast as a broad blue line on a chart of wind speed versus forecast period. The narrower lines, labeled 10% and 20% (or 30%), indicate the probability that the maximum wind speed will be some other magnitude than what the NHC has forecast. For example, the cyclone could become stronger than the NHC has forecast, with there being a 10% chance that the wind speed will attain the level indicated by the 10% line plotted above the NHC forecast. The probabilities are based on NHC forecasts from 1988-1997. The data base excludes unnamed tropical depressions. Current advisory information is shown near the bottom of the chart. When applicable, the Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale is shown at right. "Inland" is indicated for periods when the cyclone center is forecast to be over land. "Ext" indicates that the NHC forecasts the cyclone to be extratropical at that time.
Cumulative wind distribution
Date: 09/22/2005
This display shows how the size of the storm has changed, and the areas potentially affected so far by sustained winds of tropical storm force (in orange) and hurricane force (in red). The display is based on the wind radii contained in the set of Forecast/Advisories indicated at the top of the figure. Users are reminded that the Forecast/Advisory wind radii represent the maximum possible extent of a given wind speed within particular quadrants around the tropical cyclone. As a result, not all locations falling within the orange or red swaths will have experienced sustained tropical storm or hurricane force winds, respectively